Monday, December 20, 2010

The End of Snow Again

From Britain's Independent in March 2000:

Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.

The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.

Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

Fast forward to 2010.

Christmas travellers are facing severe disruption as heavy snow falls across many parts of the UK.

Airport closures have hit thousands of passengers. Heathrow expects some flights to depart from 0600 GMT, while many Gatwick flights remain cancelled.

Roads, railways and airports are affected across the UK, amid severe weather warnings for many areas.

Airports in Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands are also suffering cancellations and delays.

The snow is forecast to continue in many parts of the UK, with up to 25cm expected in some areas of England, and a number of severe weather warnings are in place.

Friday, January 8, 2010

Winter in England

From March 2000:

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past

 By Charles Onians
Monday, 20 March 2000

Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.
 ...
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".


"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

January, 2010:

Britain in grip of coldest winter for 30 years

Press Association

Friday, 8 January 2010


Britain remained in the grip of the coldest winter for more than 30 years today, with conditions set to feel even more icy in the coming days.
Temperatures were already on a par with the South Pole after the country suffered its coldest night of the winter so far.
There will be little respite, with more snow in eastern England today and temperatures likely to be pegged at or below freezing in all areas.
Over the weekend an easterly wind will move from the south of England across the country, bringing with it a biting chill factor as the coldest spell for more than three decades grinds on.
The mercury sank to minus 22.3C (8.1F) in Altnaharra in Scotland this morning - close to the minus 22.9C (minus 9.2F) currently at the southernmost part of the globe.
Manchester and parts of the Brecon Beacons in Wales saw temperatures fall to minus 16C (7F), with Glasgow reaching minus 8C (18F), Cardiff minus 5C (23F) and London hovering just below zero (32F).
As the UK remained bitterly cold, there was yet more disruption on the roads, trains and at airports, with hundreds of schools shut again.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

The Experts Predict (Fun with the NYT Archives)

[NY Times September 15, 1948, Wednesday]
WASHINGTON, Sept. 14 -- Scientists took stock here today of what science had wrought in the past hundred years and visioned a dark outlook for the human race in the next century. They linked this outlook to overpopulation and the dwindling of natural resources, both of which are the direct consequences of progress in science and technology.

[NY Times June 23, 1955, Thursday]
WASHINGTON, June 22 -- Three top scientists called today for a halt in the mass vaccination of children against poliomyelitis with Salk vaccine. They urged an immediate concentrated effort on producing a "safer" vaccine with regularity.

[NY Times November 8, 1936, Sunday]
WORLD POPULATION HELD NEARING PEAK; Johns Hopkins Scientists Say 2100 A.D. Will See High Point of 2,645,500,000.

[NY Times July 27, 1972, Thursday]
Scientists Say Tidal Waves Will Hit West Coast in 1973

[NY Times July 15, 1928, Sunday]
DES MOINES, Iowa, July 14.--The present Presidential campaign will signalize in American history the collapse of the two-party system and the birth of a new system of smaller parties, according to the opinion of ninety political scientists, expressed at the close of the annual Commonwealth Conference at the University of Iowa, Wednesday.

[NY Times May 26, 1934, Saturday]
Science Will Liberate All Mankind In Next Century, Leaders Predict; In Chicago 'Preview,' Summoned by Sloan, Industrialists, Scientists and Doctors Foresee 70-Year Life Span, Ground-Powered Planes, Sunlight Motors, Slumless Cities and World Television. Marvels of Science Forecast for the Next Hundred Years .

[NY Times July 14, 1924, Monday]
PHILADELPHIA, July 13. -- A prediction that some time, in the not far distant future New York. City would be shaken by an earthquake more terrible than the one which wrecked Tokio last Summer was made today by Professor David Todd, professor of astronomy at Amherst College. 

[NY Times February 5, 1980, Tuesday]
RECENT studies by resource and population scientists reveal that many of the earth's resources that enable the human race to feed, shelter, transport and clothe itself have passed their peak production years.

[NY Times December 24, 1977, Saturday]
ENERGY AGENCY SEES STABLE OIL PRICES; Experts Predict a World Glut Lasting Until 1981 or 1982 Glut Expected to Last Until 1981 Minor Increases Not Ruled Out
[The price of a barrel of West Texas Crude at the end of Dec, 1977 was $14.48, by the end of 1981 the price was $35.82, a rise of 147% - JH]

[NY Times January 3, 1957, Thursday]
RECORD FORECAST FOR U.S. ECONOMY; 14 Experts Predict 4% Gain This Year in the Gross National Product Shift Is Noted

This is likely to be the best business year in history in the opinion of fourteen economists polled by the National Industrial Conference Board.
[The actual rise in GDP for 1957 was 2%, the average GDP growth from 1945-1956 - JH]