Social Security Costs

From the 1941 Social Security Trust Report:

Annual benefit payments may be expected to increase from an average of about $0.3 billion for the first 5 years to almost $1 billion for the second 5 years. After a 40-year period, average annual benefit payments may have risen to a magnitude of about $3.5 billion and, after a 50-year period to over $4 billion. A further rise after that period may be expected because of the anticipated increase in the number of persons qualifying for benefits and in the average benefit payments.

Let's assume that these numbers are not inflation adjusted (and there was a serious bout of inflation between 1941 and 1991). The $4 billion estimate for social security benefits in 1991 would be equivalent to $38 billion in 1991 dollars.

The actual amount paid out in social security benefits in 1991 was $387 billion.

Off only by a factor of ten.